Uncertain Predictions About Coronavirus Outbreak in August | How to Prepare?

The pandemic is not spreading in the same way from one place to another. Countries such as China, New Zealand, and Rwanda have reached a low level of cases - after varying lengths of lockdowns - and are easing restrictions while watching for outbreaks. In other places, such as the United States and Brazil, chances rise rapidly after governments lifted lockdowns quickly or did not activate them nationally.

In South Africa, which now ranks fifth in the world in total COVID-19 cases, a peak is expected in August or September, with around one million active cases and up to 13 million patients. Regarding hospital resources, "we are already breaching capacity in some areas, so I don't think our best-case scenario is good," says Juliet Pulliam, director of South Africa's Centre for the Study of Complex Systems.

But there is hopeful news with the easing of lockdowns. Early indicators suggest that personal behavior changes, such as hand washing and mask-wearing, continue beyond the strict lockdown, helping to stop the wave of infection. In a June 3 report, a team at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London found that among 53 countries that began to open, there was a slight increase in infections as expected based on previous data.

Researchers in virus hotspots were studying the usefulness of these behaviors. At Anhembi Morumbi University in Sao Paulo, Brazil, computational biologist Osmar Pinto Neto and colleagues ran more than 250,000 mathematical models of social distancing strategies described as constant or intermittent - with restrictions easing in stages - along with behavioral interventions such as mask-wearing and hand washing.

The team concluded that if 50-65% of people were cautious in public places, easing social distancing measures every 80 days could help prevent further infections over the next two years. Generally, it is good to know that behaviors can make a big difference in disease transmission, even without testing or a vaccine.

In areas where COVID-19 appears to be worsening, researchers say the best approach is careful monitoring through testing, isolating new cases, and tracing their contacts. This is the situation in Hong Kong, for example, says Joseph Wu: "We are testing, observing, and adapting slowly," this strategy is expected to prevent a significant resurgence of cases - unless a large increase in air travel brings in many imported cases.

As we have seen in the first and second waves of the pandemic, governments responded by implementing partial or complete lockdowns to reduce mixing and increase social distancing. However, such measures have caused enormous economic damage at the national and personal levels, as all commercial activities are affected by closures and curfews.

Preparedness is the best solution for everyone, both from a health and economic standpoint. We have previously mentioned in articles the best ways to adapt to crises and that technological solutions are the best to avoid problems. Governments around the world are supporting this.

By relying on technological solutions and intelligent systems to manage your business, you can save your commercial activity, increase sales, and organize your business better. For example, there is an increase in visits to doctors, health centers, and clinics. If the pandemic predictions are confirmed, the number of people visiting doctors may increase, leading to a large mixing and overcrowding that could worsen things.

To avoid these problems, as a doctor or medical center owner, you can rely on the intelligent clinic system provided by Alalmiya Alhura Company, which allows you to organize patient visits to the clinic, book appointments, make payments, and provide medical consultations. It also allows you to communicate with patients easily and to answer all their questions and inquiries. We are now in the age of technology, which is the root solution to escape any crisis and turn crises into successes.