Uncertain Predictions About Coronavirus Outbreak in August | How to Prepare?

516 Views | 3 days ago | Published On: July 28,2021 - Last Updated: June 16,2024

Corona epidemic


Uncertain Predictions About Coronavirus Outbreak in August | How to Prepare?

The world has been in a pandemic for a year and a half now, and the virus continues to spread, albeit at a slower pace. Intermittent lockdowns are the new normal, and the approved vaccine only provides six months of protection, with around 250 million people infected worldwide and over 1.75 million deaths so far.

Around the world, epidemiologists are making short- and long-term forecasts to prepare for and possibly mitigate the spread and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19. Despite differences in their predictions and timelines, modelers agree that COVID-19 is here to stay, and the future depends on many unknowns, including whether people develop permanent immunity to the virus and whether seasonality affects its spread.

Perhaps most importantly, the choices made by governments and individuals will determine the course of the pandemic. "Many places are opening up, and many places aren't," says Rosalind Eggo, infectious disease modeler at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). "We don't really know what's going to happen yet."

"The future will largely depend on the extent of resuming social mixing and the type of prevention we enact," says Joseph Wu, a disease modeler at the University of Hong Kong. Models and recent evidence from successful lockdowns indicate that behavioral changes can reduce the spread of COVID-19 if most people comply, not necessarily all.

Last week, the confirmed cases of COVID-19 surpassed 15 million worldwide, with around 650,000 deaths. Jonathan Gruber, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston, Massachusetts, says that lockdowns are easing in many countries, leading some people to assume that the pandemic is over, but "that's not the issue, we're in this for the long haul."

If immunity against the virus lasts less than a year, like other circulating human coronaviruses, there may be annual increases in COVID-19 infections until 2025 and beyond.

economy during the time of COVID-19
What will happen shortly?

The pandemic is not spreading in the same way from one place to another. Countries such as China, New Zealand, and Rwanda have reached a low level of cases - after varying lengths of lockdowns - and are easing restrictions while watching for outbreaks. In other places, such as the United States and Brazil, chances rise rapidly after governments lifted lockdowns quickly or did not activate them nationally.

In South Africa, which now ranks fifth in the world in total COVID-19 cases, a peak is expected in August or September, with around one million active cases and up to 13 million patients. Regarding hospital resources, "we are already breaching capacity in some areas, so I don't think our best-case scenario is good," says Juliet Pulliam, director of South Africa's Centre for the Study of Complex Systems.

But there is hopeful news with the easing of lockdowns. Early indicators suggest that personal behavior changes, such as hand washing and mask-wearing, continue beyond the strict lockdown, helping to stop the wave of infection. In a June 3 report, a team at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London found that among 53 countries that began to open, there was a slight increase in infections as expected based on previous data.

Researchers in virus hotspots were studying the usefulness of these behaviors. At Anhembi Morumbi University in Sao Paulo, Brazil, computational biologist Osmar Pinto Neto and colleagues ran more than 250,000 mathematical models of social distancing strategies described as constant or intermittent - with restrictions easing in stages - along with behavioral interventions such as mask-wearing and hand washing.

The team concluded that if 50-65% of people were cautious in public places, easing social distancing measures every 80 days could help prevent further infections over the next two years. Generally, it is good to know that behaviors can make a big difference in disease transmission, even without testing or a vaccine.

In areas where COVID-19 appears to be worsening, researchers say the best approach is careful monitoring through testing, isolating new cases, and tracing their contacts. This is the situation in Hong Kong, for example, says Joseph Wu: "We are testing, observing, and adapting slowly," this strategy is expected to prevent a significant resurgence of cases - unless a large increase in air travel brings in many imported cases.

The spread of COVID-19
How to prepare for a general deterioration of the situation in terms of pandemic spread?

As we have seen in the first and second waves of the pandemic, governments responded by implementing partial or complete lockdowns to reduce mixing and increase social distancing. However, such measures have caused enormous economic damage at the national and personal levels, as all commercial activities are affected by closures and curfews.

Preparedness is the best solution for everyone, both from a health and economic standpoint. We have previously mentioned in articles the best ways to adapt to crises and that technological solutions are the best to avoid problems. Governments around the world are supporting this.

By relying on technological solutions and intelligent systems to manage your business, you can save your commercial activity, increase sales, and organize your business better. For example, there is an increase in visits to doctors, health centers, and clinics. If the pandemic predictions are confirmed, the number of people visiting doctors may increase, leading to a large mixing and overcrowding that could worsen things.

To avoid these problems, as a doctor or medical center owner, you can rely on the intelligent clinic system provided by Alalmiya Alhura Company, which allows you to organize patient visits to the clinic, book appointments, make payments, and provide medical consultations. It also allows you to communicate with patients easily and to answer all their questions and inquiries. We are now in the age of technology, which is the root solution to escape any crisis and turn crises into successes.

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